<?xml version="1.0" encoding="ISO-8859-1"?><article xmlns:mml="http://www.w3.org/1998/Math/MathML" xmlns:xlink="http://www.w3.org/1999/xlink" xmlns:xsi="http://www.w3.org/2001/XMLSchema-instance">
<front>
<journal-meta>
<journal-id>1405-7425</journal-id>
<journal-title><![CDATA[Papeles de población]]></journal-title>
<abbrev-journal-title><![CDATA[Pap. poblac]]></abbrev-journal-title>
<issn>1405-7425</issn>
<publisher>
<publisher-name><![CDATA[Universidad Autónoma del Estado de México, Centro de Investigación y Estudios Avanzados de la Población]]></publisher-name>
</publisher>
</journal-meta>
<article-meta>
<article-id>S1405-74252016000100183</article-id>
<title-group>
<article-title xml:lang="en"><![CDATA[The paradox of Mexican migration to the US 2007-2012]]></article-title>
<article-title xml:lang="es"><![CDATA[La paradoja de la migración mexicana a Estados Unidos 2007-2012]]></article-title>
</title-group>
<contrib-group>
<contrib contrib-type="author">
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[Salas]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[Emmanuel Gerardo]]></given-names>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="Aff"/>
</contrib>
<contrib contrib-type="author">
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[Loría Díaz de Guzmán]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[Eduardo Gilberto]]></given-names>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="Aff"/>
</contrib>
<contrib contrib-type="author">
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[Díaz]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[Eliseo]]></given-names>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="Aff"/>
</contrib>
</contrib-group>
<aff id="Af1">
<institution><![CDATA[,Universidad Nacional Autónoma de México  ]]></institution>
<addr-line><![CDATA[ ]]></addr-line>
<country>Mexico</country>
</aff>
<aff id="Af2">
<institution><![CDATA[,El Colegio de la Frontera Norte  ]]></institution>
<addr-line><![CDATA[ ]]></addr-line>
<country>México</country>
</aff>
<pub-date pub-type="pub">
<day>00</day>
<month>03</month>
<year>2016</year>
</pub-date>
<pub-date pub-type="epub">
<day>00</day>
<month>03</month>
<year>2016</year>
</pub-date>
<volume>22</volume>
<numero>87</numero>
<fpage>183</fpage>
<lpage>200</lpage>
<copyright-statement/>
<copyright-year/>
<self-uri xlink:href="http://www.scielo.org.mx/scielo.php?script=sci_arttext&amp;pid=S1405-74252016000100183&amp;lng=en&amp;nrm=iso"></self-uri><self-uri xlink:href="http://www.scielo.org.mx/scielo.php?script=sci_abstract&amp;pid=S1405-74252016000100183&amp;lng=en&amp;nrm=iso"></self-uri><self-uri xlink:href="http://www.scielo.org.mx/scielo.php?script=sci_pdf&amp;pid=S1405-74252016000100183&amp;lng=en&amp;nrm=iso"></self-uri><abstract abstract-type="short" xml:lang="en"><p><![CDATA[Abstract Based on an extension of Todaro's (1976) canonical migration model, a Vector Error Correction Model (VECM) (2007Q3-2012Q3, Q indicates the corresponding quarter. Here, the period from the third quarter of 2007 until the same quarter of 2012.) Was estimated. We prove that the decline in Mexican migratory flows to the United States since 2005 is related to the strengthening of the latter country's punitive actions, aimed at undocumented immigration, and also to the rise in sectorial and regional unemployment in the US relative to Mexico's unemployment rates. Some other additional and new factors, such as rising monetary costs, risks and dangers, including the death of migrants that trek through isolated areas, have also reduced attempts to cross into the United States.]]></p></abstract>
<abstract abstract-type="short" xml:lang="es"><p><![CDATA[Resumen Basado en una extensión del modelo de migración de Todaro (1976), se estimó un Modelo de Vector de Corrección de Error (VECM) (2007Q3-2012Q3). Se demuestra que la disminución del flujo migratorio de mexicanos a los Estados Unidos desde 2005 se relaciona con el fortalecimiento de las acciones punitivas de EU dirigido a la inmigración indocumentada, así como el aumento del desempleo sectorial y regional en los Estados Unidos en relación con las tasas de desempleo en México. Otros factores adicionales y nuevos, como el aumento de los costos monetarios, riesgos y peligros, entre ellos la muerte de los migrantes que se internan a través de zonas aisladas, también han reducido los intentos de cruzar a los Estados Unidos.]]></p></abstract>
<kwd-group>
<kwd lng="en"><![CDATA[Deportations]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="en"><![CDATA[migration attempts]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="en"><![CDATA[relative unemployment]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="en"><![CDATA[VECM]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="en"><![CDATA[weak exogeneity]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="es"><![CDATA[Deportaciones]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="es"><![CDATA[intentos de migrar]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="es"><![CDATA[desempleo relativo]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="es"><![CDATA[VECM]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="es"><![CDATA[exogeneidad débil]]></kwd>
</kwd-group>
</article-meta>
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